On this blog post I will describe why the election of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2024 would represent a major threat to democracy. I will present my argument in the context of the Three-Dimensional Political Model that I have methodically constructed. I recommend that readers first check out my blog post of the updated political model before diving into this essay. In this way readers will have a more thorough understanding of the reasoning behind my contention that Trump is a truly grave, menacing, and existential threat to American Democracy.

The threat that Donald Trump poses relates to a lingering quandary I had while designing my three-dimensional political model. I was well acquainted with Arthur Schlesinger’s Cyclical Theory Model for political change. Using a pendulum as metaphor, Schlesinger implied that when democratic systems of government are driven to extremes, a correction seems to spontaneously occur, like a pendulum swinging through it’s arc. With a pendulum, a force always directs the pendulum to the mid-point of it’s swing. Likewise, if the metaphor of a pendulum is appropriate, a “force” must tend to drive democratic political systems toward more moderate positions after they have swung toward extremes. I call this force the “restoring force”. Though I intuitively understood that such a restoring force must exist, for years I had no true comprehension of it’s real identity. Then I read “How Democracies Die” by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt. In this book Levitsky and Ziblatt discuss at length what they call the “guardrails of democracy”. Then I had a massive epiphany: my long missing identity of the “restoring force” were the guardrails of democracy. These guardrails are brought to bear with great ferocity when political systems are driven to extremes. In a nutshell, Levitsky and Ziblatt argue compellingly that democracies die through a systematic evisceration of the guardrails of democracy. It follows then that the preservation of intact guardrails are necessary to sustain democratic systems.

As outlined by Levitsky and Ziblatt, there are many guardrails of democracy. They include: 1.) free and independent mass media, 2.) civic participation in government to include most fundamentally universal suffrage, 3.) the rule of law with an understanding that no one is above the law, 4.) the checks and balances that exist when powers are separated among three co-equal branches of government, 5.) a party system that serves as gatekeepers to prevent the rise of a demagogue, 6.) Federalism, which means limited centralized government so as to ensure that the American political system protects the natural rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness as outlined in the Declaration of Independence 7.) effective and respected law enforcement 8.) effective and respected intelligence gathering services 9.) mutual toleration, meaning that one regards political opponents as legitimate 10.) institutional forbearance, meaning that one in power voluntarily refrains from using every prerogative at their disposal. This list is not necessarily all inclusive, but covers most of the fundamental guardrails of democracy.

Remember again, that the list of guardrails of democracy above are what constitute the restoring force in my three-dimensional political model. Donald Trump has already served one term as president of the United States. During his term as president, Trump compromised may of the guardrails, and this foreshadows a further erosion of the guardrails should Trump again become president. I previously described that I would discuss the Trump threat in terms of my 3-D model, so an abbreviated discussion of the relevant portion of the model is necessary.

I contend that American democracy has been driven far to the right by a collection of committed constituencies pushing it in that direction. This assessment excludes specific superfluous issues like transgender restroom access and drag queen story hour, which one could argue result in a leftward press of the social agenda. These are not fundamental kitchen table issues however, so I again assert that our democratic system of government has been driven far to the right. Figure 7 below utilizes stick figures and vectors to illustrate political constituencies contesting one another. Vectors are quantities having both magnitude and direction. Their magnitude is represented by the length of the arrow, and their direction by the direction that the arrow points. Vector A represents the force of conservative constituencies pushing the system of government rightward up the slope. Vector B represents the force of liberal constituencies pushing the system leftward down the slope. Vector C is the “restoring force”, which again are the sum total of all the guardrails of democracy. The contact point between the circle and the curved line is where the political system resides. The only way the political system can be driven rightward is if the magnitude of Vector A is greater than the sum of Vectors B&C. As drawn, Vectors B&C have magnitudes greater than A, so one would expect that the political system would move leftward toward the bottom of the arc. In reality, over the last several decades the magnitude of Vector A has been greater than the sum of Vectors B&C, pushing our political system far up the right side of the Well of Democracy. (See Three-Dimensional Political Model post for an explanation of the Well of Democracy) The magnitude of Vector C becomes greater the steeper it is located up the slope. Therefore, since Vector C represents the guardrails of democracy, those guardrails are brought to bear with greater ferocity the further the system is driven to the right.

Figure 8 below provides a more quantitative representation of the interacting vectors, especially Vector C, and how it’s magnitude increases as the political system is driven further to the right up the slope. For a further evaluation of this figure see the 3-D model post.

The above two figures show an ever increasing slope toward the right, but the slope DOES NOT increase forever. An inflection point is reached with the slope becoming more gentle until a crest is reached. This is extremely significant. If the guardrails are brought to bear with greater ferocity as the slope increases, then the guardrails are being systematically eviscerated as the slope decreases beyond the inflection point. The guardrails would then be completely eliminated once one reaches the crest, what I call “The Revolutionary Rim“.

With regard to the guardrails of democracy, think of what Donald Trump did during his term in office. First of all, Trump rose to power within the Republican Party because the party lacked super delegates within it’s primary/caucus system, unlike the Democratic Party. Super delegates, though being somewhat undemocratic, serve as gatekeepers to exclude would be demagogues from rising to power. Once in power Trump incessantly attacked the media as being “fake”, though a free, independent media is essential for a vibrant democracy to flourish. Trump attacked universal suffrage, another guardrail, through voter suppression efforts , attacking early voting, mail-in voting, and “souls to the polls”. Trump attacked the guardrail of separation of powers among three co-equal branches of government. This checks the power of the chief executive. But Trump wanted to exert far greater executive power through executive action and stating “only I can fix it”, suggesting the desire for imperial power. Should Trump regain the presidency, he will implement the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 which will provide him with the imperial power he covets. Trump attacked the guardrail of law enforcement, in particular the FBI and the DOJ, and professes to defund the FBI and eliminate the independence of the DOJ should he again become president. Trump has attacked the Rule of Law, professing that he should be immune to prosecution, though this guardrail states that no one is above the law. Trump has attacked the soft guardrail of mutual toleration by claiming that his political opponents are illegitimate, are part of crime syndicates and should be locked up. Trump has failed to exercise institutional forbearance, another soft guardrail of democracy, by not refraining to use every prerogative at his disposal to achieve political or grifting ambitions.

Trump’s progressive, unyielding, evisceration of the guardrails of democracy are evidence that during his presidency the American political system had been driven beyond the inflection point of the curve and toward the Revolutionary Rim, beyond which is a remorseless, inexorable descent to fascism. I further contend that American democracy was saved during the 2020 election because of the enthusiastic engagement and pushback by African American women, who stepped up to save it. (See earlier post on this subject).

How could the election of Donald Trump endanger American democracy and send our system spiraling toward fascism? Also, how could Americans detect an emerging fascist state? Figure 10 below is instructive in recognizing a Trump initiated erosion of democracy and the emergence of incipient fascism.

Figure 10 above is a cross-section of the right side of my proposed three-dimensional political model. As of 2024, I propose that American democracy is at Position 1 on this illustration. Since the election of Joe Biden as president, our system has moved slightly leftward, downslope, and more ensconced within the Well of Democracy. Our system is left of the inflection point of the curve, where the Restoring Force (letter “C”), is quite strong and assisting constituencies “B” in pushing back against the MAGA constituencies “A”, which are attempting to push American democracy further right. Vector “A” is not drawn to scale, as in reality it is longer than the sum of vectors B&C at this time. The grave danger is that the election of Donald Trump in 2024 would result in our democratic system being pushed rightward. Remember, the danger is that beyond the inflection point of the curve, the magnitude of the Restoring Force, essential to counter rightward pushing constituencies, becomes smaller and smaller until at Position 2 it is thoroughly eviscerated. In a second term, Donald Trump, with the enthusiastic support of the Heritage Foundation and their Project 2025, would begin the destruction of democracy’s guardrails, permitting him to drive American democracy toward the Revolutionary Rim. Also, remember that the Restoring Force represents the guardrails of democracy. Above, I presented a nearly all inclusive list of the guardrails of democracy. lf Trump is elected to a second term it is important for the American people to recognize a systematic evisceration of the guardrails listed above, because their erosion and final elimination sets the stage for a likely inexorable descent to fascism.

How could the American people recognize an incipient descent toward fascism? Again, examine Figure 10 above with a focus on Position 3. At this point, democracy has been completely lost and the system is cascading toward fascism. Constiuency “A” may still be pushing rightward, but this is extremely wrongheaded unless they acutually want fascism. Constiuency “B” is still attempting to push back leftward but likely to no avail because now in addition to Constiuency “A” pushing rightward, a NEW force exists to assist in this objective. The new force, still labeled on the diagram as “C” is what I call the Amplifying Force. The amplifying force assists in the descent toward fascism. How could an observer of the American political scene recognize the amplifying force coming into play to expedite a descent toward fascism? In her book “Strongman”, Ruth Ben-Ghiat provides insights into what to look for as an authoritarian, autocratic, would-be fascist dictator moves toward consolidating his rule. The following list is not all inclusive but would include: 1.) domestication of the press and the judiciary, 2.) increasing demands for loyalty from cabinet officials, even at the expense of competence, 3.) amending the constitution to prolong his stay in office and to offer himself immunity from criminal prosecution, 4.) purge experts at various levels from the civil service, especially those who fail to exhibit sufficient loyalty, 5.) exhibit scorn for the Hatch Act, which forbids government employees from engaging in certain forms of political activity, including grifting for personal gain, 6.) requiring loyalty pledges from mid-level bureaucrats within the administrative state to involve high turnover rates for those who won’t conspire in corruption and subversion of the rule of law by the autocrat, 7.) Implement a “divide and rule” strategy within his cabinet to keep members in competition with each other and loyal only to him. The constant upheaval creates a political class too weakened by rivalries to conspire against the leader and too cowed to tell him unwelcome news, 8.) Finally, as the would-be fascist dictator stabilizes his rule, he uses propaganda to legitimate his authority.

There are also strategies that an emergent fascist dictator will use to gain sufficient support from the people in advance of cementing his rule. Donald Trump already tried many of these strategies in his first term. They are broadly “populist”, but also clearly autocratic strategies to amass support. Jason Stanley, in his book titled “How Fascism Works”, lists those strategies that an aspiring fascist dictator will employ in order to garner support and win the hearts and minds of a disaffected electorate. In other words, Jason Stanley is listing the strategies the would-be autocrat will use to manipulate people into identifying and demonizing specific outgroups seen as responsible for social, cultural, and economic decline. Below, I list the ten strategies that emerging autocratic, authoritarian, fascist dictators use to undermine trust in democratic systems. I will try to be as succinct as possible:

1.) Mythic Past – Appeals to a pure mythic and glorious past when an extreme patriarchal family reigned. This wondrous past was lost in humiliating fashion by globalism, liberal cosmopolitanism, and equality. The myth is based on non-existent past uniformity and serves to harness emotions of nostalgia for what is perceived to have been lost.

2.) Propaganda – The function here is to conceal a politician or political movements clearly problematic goals by masking them with ideals that are widely accepted. Publicize corruption while engaging in corruption. Corruption to fascists is really about the corruption of purity rather than law, corruption in the sense of usurpation of traditional order. Through propaganda, the fascist goal is dismantling the rule of law and replacing it with the dictates of the fascist leader.

3.) Anti-Intellectualism – Fascist politics undermines public discourse by attacking and devaluing education, expertise, and language. Once undermined, only power and tribal identity remain. In fascist ideology, the only legitimate viewpoint is that of the dominant nation, meaning the dominant ethnic and religious group. Also, in fascist ideology the function of the education system is to glorify the mythic past, with expertise being mocked and devalued.

4.) Unreality (Conspiracy Theories) – Fascist politics exchange reality for the pronouncements of a single individual. Conspiracy theories are a critical mechanism used to deligitimize the mainstream media. The goal of conspiracies is to connect it’s target, Democrats, to acts of extreme depravity. Conspiracies arn’t intended to convince an audience that they are true, but intended to remain at the level of innuendo and slander, and as such, to cause widespread mistrust and paranoia, justifying the censoring or shutting down of “liberal” media.

5.) Hierarchy – According to fascist ideology, nature imposes hierarchies of power and dominance. Fascist ideology takes advantage of the human tendency to organize society hierarchically. Fascist myths legitimize hierarchies as immutable facts, justified by nature. They view democratic principles of equality as in conflict with nature. They believe in a hierarchy of worth, using language such as “hardworking” versus “lazy”, where blackness is associated with lazy. In fascist mythology, women’s equality destroys the virtuous patriarchal society. Fascist politics feed off a sense of aggrieved victimization caused by loss of hierarchal status. In fascism, hierarchy results in an agenda that serves the highest echelons most.

6.) Victimhood – At the core of fascism is loyalty to tribe, ethnic identity, religion, tradition, or, in a word “nation”. Fascist nationalism is nationalism in service of domination. Rectifying unjust inequalities will be seen as oppression by those who previously benefited from the injustice. The fascist leader employs a sense of collective victimhood to create a sense of group identity opposed to the cosmopolitan ethos.

7.) Law and Order – Fascist law and order rhetoric is explicitly meant to divide citizens into two classes: those of the chosen nation, who are lawful by nature, and those who are not, who are inherently lawless. The most common method of sowing fear about a minority group is painting them as threats to law and order. The word “criminal” when especially applied to black people has a resonant meaning – people who by their nature are insensitive to society’s norms, drawn to violate the law for self-interest or malice.

8.) Sexual Anxiety – The politics of sexual anxiety is particularly effective when traditional male roles, such as that of family provider, are already under threat by economic forces. Fascist propaganda promotes fear of interbreeding and race mixing, which they see as corrupting the pure nation. In times of extreme economic anxiety, men, already made anxious by a perceived loss of status resulting from increased gender equality, can be thrust into panic by demagoguery directed against gays, transexuals, etc. By employing the politics of sexual anxiety, a fascist leader represents freedom and equality as threats.

9.) Appeals to the Heartland – Cities, in the fascist imagination, are the source of corrupting culture, while the countryside is pure. The true values of the nation are found in rural populations. Attitudes toward immigrants form one of the widest gulfs between cities and rural communities. The politics of rural versus urban is promising for sowing division by fascist politicians, expecially around the topic of immigration. Fascist politics aims its message at the populace outside cities, and is especially resonant during times of globalization. It focuses on traditional values of self-sufficiency. Fascist politics feed the myth that hard-working rural residents pay to support lazy urban dwellers. In fascist ideology, the rural life is guided by the ethos of self-sufficiency, which breeds strength, unlike the “parasites” in the city.

10.) Dismantling of Public Welfare and Unity – In fascist ideology, “welfare” is seen as robbing individuals of their capacity for economic independence; often, the state redistributing the wealth of hardworking citizens to undeserving minorities. Politicians employing fascist tactics can speak of a crisis of laziness supposedly underlying multigenerational poverty, rather than articulating the real cause. The “laziness” can supposedly be “cured” by forcing the population into “hard work” by slashing the safety net further. Fascist politics seeks to minimize the importance of class struggle. The labor union is the chief mechanism societies have found to bind people who differ along various dimensions. Antipathy to labor unions is a major theme in fascist politics. Fascism requires individuals in a society to be “atomized”, that is, to lose their mutual connection across differences. Labor unions create mutual bonds along lines of class rather than race or religion. Fascist politics is most effective under conditions of stark economic inequality.

As you read through these ten points, you should have recognized a connection between these points and the frequently articulated objectives of Donald Trump. As the months pass between now and election day, remain cognizant of the Trump agenda and how it dovetails with fascism. Read this post again and again over the next several months to further reinforce the thrust of my argument: that Donald Trump is truly a grave threat to democracy. Have your friends and relative read this post and “A Three-Dimensional Political Model (updated)”. Discuss your impressions of the posts with your friends and relatives. Finally, leave me a response in the comments. I guarantee that I will respond. Thank you.

For a more in-depth study read the following. These are all books that I read which provided me with critical insights:

How Democracies Die – by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt

Strongmen, Mussolini to the Present – by Ruth Ben-Ghiat

How Fascism Works, The Politics of Us and Them – by Jason Stanley

Jesus and John Wayne – by Kristin Kobes Du Mez

Un-Trumping America – by Dan Pfeiffer

Weapons of Mass Delusion – by Robert Draper

Preparing For War – by Bradley Onishi

The Coming Neo-Feudalism – by Joel Kotkin

The 9.9 percent – by Matthew Stewart

Thank you For Your Sevitude – by Mark Leibovich